Strong Weather System to Bring Heavy Rain

Heavy rainfall is expected across the foothills of North Carolina Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain is expected to break out over the area Monday morning and last through the overnight until Tuesday morning. I will forecast 1.5-2.5 inches of rain for the eastern foothills with the western foothills receiving 2-4 inches of rain. Some areas could locally receive more rain. Below is the expected rainfall totals from the HPC this afternoon (this is a 48 hour map issued at 2:44 p.m.):

Upper Level Low To Affect Region

The foothills of North Carolina will be dealing with a very complicated weather situation Sunday through Tuesday. A large low pressure system will cut off from the overall pattern and form into a large upper level low pressure system. This cut off low pressure will help to draw copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Once the system begins to affect the region, late Sunday Night, a prolonged period of heavy rain is possible. Some of the mountain communities could see around 2-5 inches of rain from this system. Here in the foothills, most areas will see right around 1-3 inches of rain with the heaviest totals near the Blue Ridge. The Blue Ridge eastern escrapement could see up to 5 inches of rain. Some areas could see more or less rain depending on the overall evolution of the low pressure. As the system departs on Tuesday, a few snow showers are possible over the foothills; however, accumulating snow is not expected at this time. More details on this storm will come tomorrow morning, along with a map of expected rainfall amounts.

Severe Storms Possible

EDIT 11:40 A.M.: Right after I finished writing this post below, the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma upgraded the foothills of western North Carolina to a 5% chance of a tornado. The storms are currently expected to move through this evening.
A strong cold front and upper level trough is currently pushing its way through Tennessee and the gulf coast states, making its way slowly towards the foothills of North Carolina. Currently indications are the front is expected to arrive here in western North Carolina this evening and remain with us until midnight. Models are indicating very strong dynamics are coming together to help drive a period of strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has placed most of the area in a "SLIGHT RISK" for severe storms. To view the most current map, you can click this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html. Right now it appears that this biggest threat with this line will be strong winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and torrential rain; however, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out of the equation. Once this front passes, we will clear out for a beautiful weekend. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Temperatures Saturday will peak around 60 degrees before temperatures rise back up to near 70 degrees by Sunday.

Showers, Storms Possible Tuesday and Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms, yes storms, are possible as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday will feature more or less showers as a slow moving front meanders its way towards the area. By Tuesday Night, showers are expected to increase. Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are possible, with a slight chance of a few severe storms. These storms could produce very heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail, and very gusty winds. Precipitable water values are expected to quickly rise 200% above normal, so this could lead to locally heavy rainfall. Right now, I will forecast between a quarter to a half of an inch of rain. Some areas were storms track could see a whole lot more rain from this system. We clear out by Thursday and Friday with highs climbing into the 50s.

Overall Quiet Week

Warmer temperatures with a quiet weather is the expectations this week. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will remain in the upper 60s or lower 70s with mostly sunny skies after early morning fog burns off.  Lows are expected to be in the upper 30s, low 40s. Thursday will be mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers as a front moves through. Temperatures on Thursday will remain cool with the clouds, with highs in the low 60s. Thursday Night will have temperatures in the low 30s. Veterans Day, Friday, looks cooler with temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Friday Night will feature lows in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The weekend looks to be sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s with lows in the mid 30s.

Heavy Rain Possible Thursday Night

A quick moving system is expected to cross North Carolina Thursday Night and Friday, causing a brief period of very heavy rain to develop. Rain is expected to cover the foothills by 8:00 p.m. Thursday Night and be clearing the area by 8:00 a.m. Friday. The wild card is the development of any thunderstorms in this band of rain. Surface based cape will remain fairly week; however, the main upper air energy will be passing overhead as the storm pushes towards the coast. This could cause a few strong storms to push through in the overnight hours. Once the event is finished, I expect most areas in the foothills to have around one half to three-fourths of an inch of rain, with locally higher amounts approaching 1-2 inches of rain. After the system passes, a general warming trend is expected with temperatures by Tuesday approaching 70 degrees and dry weather for the weekend. Over the weekend, expect lows near freezing and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.