Winter Forecast 2011-2012

Another winter is now upon us, and now its time for my winter weather forecast. This year, I will forecast average to above average snowfall in the foothills of North Carolina. Most areas in the foothills receive around eight to ten inches of snow each season. I believe that most areas in the foothills will have two-four winter storms this season with a 50% chance of one of those storms being an ice storm. The reason for the average to above average snowfall totals this year is the pattern that is currently going on. We are seeing numerous troughs of low pressure dip down through the southeast, especially in October. This was evident with the most recent winter storm that affect areas in Virginia through the Northeast. This is a very favorable set up for winter weather in the foothills of North Carolina. The underlining factor that is expected to help us this winter cycle is the NAO. The NAO is a difficult part of the forecast because it is very hard to forecast the NAO long range; however, there is general agreement that the NAO should go negative for a portion of this winter. A negative NAO helps to bring down cool air from Canada into the eastern United States. I expect this to happen early this winter as last winter. I do not expect this winter to be as cool as last winter; however, I do expect below average temperatures. As for precipitation, I expect that most areas will remain drier than average, especially in the coastal plain. This year is a La Nina year, so that is why I will forecast below average rainfall. La Nina years usually results in warmer than average temperature; however, the NAO, as we saw last year, can offset and overpower the La Nina conditions. Once again, we are still learning about the NAO, and the effects the NAO has on our weather. I hope ya'll are ready for some snow, because it looks to be coming to the foothills of North Carolina again this season.

Wild Weather Coming Friday, Weekend

The weather is absolutely beautiful today with temperatures climbing into the 70s across much of the foothills of North Carolina, but the weather is about to change my friends. A front is currently moving this way, and the associated energy will help to develop an area of low pressure on the Carolina coast Friday. This will lock most of the foothills in a northeast cold air damming affect for Friday. Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees on Friday, with most of the day being locked in the middle to upper 40s with light rain. Current indications are that the rain could pick up in intensity Friday Night as the system continues to deepen on the coast. For Friday Night Football games, temperatures will be in the lower 40s or upper 30s with showers and rain and a northeast wind around 5-10 mph. Total rainfall for the event should be between a quarter and a half of an inch of rain; however, some areas could locally receive closer to one inch of rain. Saturday will be a clearing day with showers early and sunshine late in the day. This will help to set up for another frost/freeze event over the foothills. Current indications are that most areas will bottom out at 32 degrees, so be sure to bring in those tender plans Saturday Night and Sunday Night. Temperatures will slowly continue to rise next week with highs in the 50s / low 60s early in the week and lows in the upper 30s / low 40s.

Weekend Weather Forecast

First, I would like to give a sky watcher forecast for tonight with the new moon. Tonight, it will be partly cloudy across the foothills of North Carolina with temperatures quickly dropping into the 50s.
On Friday, a front will be draped over the area. New model data today suggest that there will be a light drizzle or rain developing over the foothills afternoon Friday lasting into the early hours of Saturday. Friday Night football games will feature drizzle with temperatures in the lower 40s or upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly drop from the mid to upper 40s into the upper 30s by midnight. The temperature Saturday morning will be mid 30s before rising into the upper 40s or lower 50s. Rainfall amounts will likely be under a quarter of an inch. Saturday will be cloudy early with sun in the afternoon. By Saturday Night, a frost may occur when temperatures drop near freezing. Sunday will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the middle 30s.

Warming Trend Through Thursday, Cold Front Friday

The foothills of North Carolina are in for a great week with nice warm temperatures and cool crisp evenings. Daytime highs from today through Thursday will be above 70 near 75 degrees in most locations with lows dipping into the mid to upper 40s. By Thursday Night, a cold front will push through the region, helping to knock our temperatures back into the 50s for highs and lows near freezing over the weekend. Right now, no severe weather is expected with this cold front; however, that could change as we move closer to the event.

Minor Frost Possible Tonight

As an area of High pressure pushes into the area, winds should gradually decrease throughout the day and overnight; however, the winds will remain around 5-10 mph overnight. This will help to prevent a frost in most areas of the foothills. Some protected areas could see frosty conditions; however, most areas will stay above freezing and avoid frosty conditions to the morning. In the long range, another light frost is possible Saturday morning before we begin to moderate next week.

Showers Moving Out, Wind and Cooler Temps Coming

The showers and thunderstorms with a cold front will continue to decrease through the overnight hours, and the wind will begin to kick up. On Thursday, expect gusty winds around 15-20 mph with a few higher gust around 25-30 mph possible. The low tonight is expected to drop to 40 degrees. The high tomorrow will climb to 60 degrees with a temperature Friday morning of 39 degrees. Definitely a change from what we have been used to. The leave change is in full bloom, and is expected to reach peak next week. Some areas may frost Friday morning and Saturday morning; however, a widespread frost is currently not expected.
In the higher elevations of the mountains, some rain and snow showers are possible later tonight and Thursday. Right now, no accumulations are expected; however, some areas could pick up a quick dusting or a slushy inch before it melts.
Long Range show another dry cold front coming through Monday to help keep temperatures down; however, a warm up into the low 70s looks possible as we move in Wednesday next week. Then we watch for possibly the coldest air of the season next weekend. Its a long ways away, but we are getting due for our first major widespread frost to end the growing season.

Tuesday Night, Wednesday Morning Storm

Model from http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/

Pictured above is the GFS Model for the storm coming up tonight and Wednesday. This storm is expected to move up the coast and give us in the foothills a decent rain event. The 12z GFS model is calling for .25-.5 of an inch for most everyone in the foothills of North Carolina; however, I believe that totals will be slightly higher than what the GFS is showing. Right now, I will predict .5-1 inch of rain for most of the forecast area, including Shelby, Rutherfordton, Hickory, Morganton, Valdese, Granite Falls, Lenoir, and Wilkesboro. After the rain comes to an end Wednesday afternoon, the winds will kick up and bring in cooler air. The lows Thursday will be in the upper 30s, lower 40s with highs Thursday reaching mid to upper 50s for most locations. Fall is on the way.

Storm Coming Up Coast Could Provide Needed Rainfall

A large trough is currently bisecting the United States and a gulf low is stuck in the Gulf of Mexico. This trough will help to pick up the low and move it up the coast. As this happens, a shield of heavy rain is expected to develop across North Carolina. The million dollar question is where does this rain shield develop? Right now, the thinking is that the heaviest rain will remain east of the foothills; however, showers and storms are still likely. Right now I will forecast a half to one inch of rain for Burke, Caldwell, Wilkes, Catawba, McDowell, Rutherford, and Cleveland counties. I will be posting a map of the event later this afternoon.