Winter Forecast 2011-2012

Another winter is now upon us, and now its time for my winter weather forecast. This year, I will forecast average to above average snowfall in the foothills of North Carolina. Most areas in the foothills receive around eight to ten inches of snow each season. I believe that most areas in the foothills will have two-four winter storms this season with a 50% chance of one of those storms being an ice storm. The reason for the average to above average snowfall totals this year is the pattern that is currently going on. We are seeing numerous troughs of low pressure dip down through the southeast, especially in October. This was evident with the most recent winter storm that affect areas in Virginia through the Northeast. This is a very favorable set up for winter weather in the foothills of North Carolina. The underlining factor that is expected to help us this winter cycle is the NAO. The NAO is a difficult part of the forecast because it is very hard to forecast the NAO long range; however, there is general agreement that the NAO should go negative for a portion of this winter. A negative NAO helps to bring down cool air from Canada into the eastern United States. I expect this to happen early this winter as last winter. I do not expect this winter to be as cool as last winter; however, I do expect below average temperatures. As for precipitation, I expect that most areas will remain drier than average, especially in the coastal plain. This year is a La Nina year, so that is why I will forecast below average rainfall. La Nina years usually results in warmer than average temperature; however, the NAO, as we saw last year, can offset and overpower the La Nina conditions. Once again, we are still learning about the NAO, and the effects the NAO has on our weather. I hope ya'll are ready for some snow, because it looks to be coming to the foothills of North Carolina again this season.