The first part of December looks to be relatively warm; however, the second part of the forecast is becoming very difficult. The first fifteen days of December will be warmer than average across most of the foothills of North Carolina. This is due to La Nina, a positive NAO, and other oscillations. The second half of the forecast gets complicated as the models begin to diverge. We will have to wait to see how the oscillations move over the next few days before a definite forecast can be made about the last sixteen days of December. Right now, many of the NAO is expected to crash and move towards a negative phase, which would help to drive cold air down from Canada. Models in the long range have been saying this a lot of recent; however, they tend to back off this idea as we move closer to the expected time period.
HERE IS MY BEST FORECAST RIGHT NOW:
December 1-15: Warmer than average, precipitation around average, very little chance of any wintry weather.
December 16-31: Cooler than average, precipitation below average, chance of a winter storm after Christmas.
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