Quiet Week Expected

A quiet week is expected this week with a couple of dry cold fronts coming through, helping to knock back temperatures. The biggest question is what happens this weekend. A system will pass by to our south with marginally cool air available. If the storm decides to move up the coast, we could see a snow storm here in the foothills of North Carolina. Right now, the models continue to show the storm off the coast. We will keep you updated daily on the latest trends.

Wedge Day Tomorrow, Sunny Skies, Then WINTER?

Tomorrow will feature a wedge that will help to keep skies mostly cloudy, a few patchy spots of drizzle, and will keep temperatures mainly in the 40s. Overnight, the flow will turn helping to break the clouds up, bring sunny skies for the rest of the week. Temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be in the upper 50s or lower 60s. Friday and Saturday will feature temperatures in the lower 50s ahead of our next possible system.

For the possibly exciting part of the forecast. Saturday, high latitude blocking is expected to occur in the western United States, sending a ridge towards the eastern United States. Temperatures are expected to remain fairly cool over the weekend, so the question is will there be any moisture available for snow. Well, the answer is maybe. Some of the operational computer models and a few ensembles are hinting at the possibility of winter weather on Sunday. The problems are in the phasing of the upper level trough and the surface system. The models typically do not handle phasing very well a few days out much in less seven days out. So, we will continue to watch the possibility for winter weather this upcoming weekend.

Below are pictures from the 18z run of the GFS computer model with explanation.

Above is the Precipitation amount on the GFS Sunday Morning. As you can see, there is light precipitation over western North Carolina. Most if not all of the precipitation would fall as snow, if the GFS was right.

Above is the 500 mb map showing vorticity. As you can see, the northern and southern streams are separate. If the two streams phase together, a major system could develop on the east coast; however, it would be unclear where the system would track. If the two systems do not phase, there is a better chance of snow.

Wednesday Weather Whys: Model Forecast

Have you ever wondered where the meteorologist receive weather data, models, and other sources of information? Well, below I explain where some of these products come from and where you can find the products that we meteorologist use:

MODELS
There are hundreds of sites to find model data; however, most of the data comes from NCEP, the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Below is a link to the model data that I use in many of my forecast. The GFS and NAM models can be found on this site, but that is not where it stops. Other models can also be found on this site.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE
You can also find other models on other sites, such at the European model and the Canadian Model.

MODEL OUTPUTS
You can find direct model output predictions for your area at the website below:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/
This website shows the actual GFS model output for a specific area.

Coming up next week, I will explain MOS data so you can predict the temperature in your area. If you have a question that you would like me to answer in the Wednesday Weather Whys section, just post the question below, and I will answer it here on the blog.