Wedge Day Tomorrow, Sunny Skies, Then WINTER?

Tomorrow will feature a wedge that will help to keep skies mostly cloudy, a few patchy spots of drizzle, and will keep temperatures mainly in the 40s. Overnight, the flow will turn helping to break the clouds up, bring sunny skies for the rest of the week. Temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be in the upper 50s or lower 60s. Friday and Saturday will feature temperatures in the lower 50s ahead of our next possible system.

For the possibly exciting part of the forecast. Saturday, high latitude blocking is expected to occur in the western United States, sending a ridge towards the eastern United States. Temperatures are expected to remain fairly cool over the weekend, so the question is will there be any moisture available for snow. Well, the answer is maybe. Some of the operational computer models and a few ensembles are hinting at the possibility of winter weather on Sunday. The problems are in the phasing of the upper level trough and the surface system. The models typically do not handle phasing very well a few days out much in less seven days out. So, we will continue to watch the possibility for winter weather this upcoming weekend.

Below are pictures from the 18z run of the GFS computer model with explanation.

Above is the Precipitation amount on the GFS Sunday Morning. As you can see, there is light precipitation over western North Carolina. Most if not all of the precipitation would fall as snow, if the GFS was right.

Above is the 500 mb map showing vorticity. As you can see, the northern and southern streams are separate. If the two streams phase together, a major system could develop on the east coast; however, it would be unclear where the system would track. If the two systems do not phase, there is a better chance of snow.