Quiet Week Expected

A quiet week is expected this week with a couple of dry cold fronts coming through, helping to knock back temperatures. The biggest question is what happens this weekend. A system will pass by to our south with marginally cool air available. If the storm decides to move up the coast, we could see a snow storm here in the foothills of North Carolina. Right now, the models continue to show the storm off the coast. We will keep you updated daily on the latest trends.

Wedge Day Tomorrow, Sunny Skies, Then WINTER?

Tomorrow will feature a wedge that will help to keep skies mostly cloudy, a few patchy spots of drizzle, and will keep temperatures mainly in the 40s. Overnight, the flow will turn helping to break the clouds up, bring sunny skies for the rest of the week. Temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be in the upper 50s or lower 60s. Friday and Saturday will feature temperatures in the lower 50s ahead of our next possible system.

For the possibly exciting part of the forecast. Saturday, high latitude blocking is expected to occur in the western United States, sending a ridge towards the eastern United States. Temperatures are expected to remain fairly cool over the weekend, so the question is will there be any moisture available for snow. Well, the answer is maybe. Some of the operational computer models and a few ensembles are hinting at the possibility of winter weather on Sunday. The problems are in the phasing of the upper level trough and the surface system. The models typically do not handle phasing very well a few days out much in less seven days out. So, we will continue to watch the possibility for winter weather this upcoming weekend.

Below are pictures from the 18z run of the GFS computer model with explanation.

Above is the Precipitation amount on the GFS Sunday Morning. As you can see, there is light precipitation over western North Carolina. Most if not all of the precipitation would fall as snow, if the GFS was right.

Above is the 500 mb map showing vorticity. As you can see, the northern and southern streams are separate. If the two streams phase together, a major system could develop on the east coast; however, it would be unclear where the system would track. If the two systems do not phase, there is a better chance of snow.

Wednesday Weather Whys: Model Forecast

Have you ever wondered where the meteorologist receive weather data, models, and other sources of information? Well, below I explain where some of these products come from and where you can find the products that we meteorologist use:

MODELS
There are hundreds of sites to find model data; however, most of the data comes from NCEP, the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Below is a link to the model data that I use in many of my forecast. The GFS and NAM models can be found on this site, but that is not where it stops. Other models can also be found on this site.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE
You can also find other models on other sites, such at the European model and the Canadian Model.

MODEL OUTPUTS
You can find direct model output predictions for your area at the website below:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/
This website shows the actual GFS model output for a specific area.

Coming up next week, I will explain MOS data so you can predict the temperature in your area. If you have a question that you would like me to answer in the Wednesday Weather Whys section, just post the question below, and I will answer it here on the blog.

Small Chance of Showers Thursday, Heavier Rain Soon

After a few nice spring like days, our next system will begin approaching from the west. Right now, models are suggesting that the weather Thursday will feature cloudy skies and scattered light showers. The next big system appears to push into the area over the weekend. A lot of uncertainty accompanies this system; however, it appears very heavy rain could push over the area. We will keep you updated, but below is your three day forecast:
TUESDAY: Sunny with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly Cloudy with showers overnight. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the upper 40s.
THURSDAY: 40% chance of light showers. Light accumulations. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s.

Possible Strong to Severe Storms This Evening, Tonight

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has the foothills of North Carolina in a slight risk for severe storms today. According to the SPC, the slight risk runs right through eastern Burke County through western Lincoln County. The other areas west of Hickory are in the threat for mainly non-severe storms; however, no guarantees can be made. Severe storms can occur outside of the threat area, and with the threat area so close, everyone needs to be sure to be ready for severe weather tonight. The strongest storms look to penetrate through the area between 9:00 p.m. Thursday and 1:00 a.m. Friday. These storms have a chance to produce very strong winds, small hail, heavy rain, lightning, and a slight chance of a tornado. Be sure to have your NOAA Weather Alert radio on tonight and keep in touch with the latest information from the NWS via television, radio, and/or the internet.

For more information, visit the Storm Prediction Page: http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

No Real Cool Down Expected

Looking into the long range today, no real cool down is seen at least for next week. A front will push showers and thunderstorms through the area late Thursday evening and early Friday morning. Some areas could see over a half inch of rain from the system. The weekend will clear out nice with temperatures in the 50s right through the mid-week. Temperatures following this period could rise a little with another ridge building into the area. Its not looking to good for snow lovers through the first weeks of February, but you never know what the last couple weeks of February and the first couple weeks of March will have for the foothills of North Carolina.

Wednesday Weather Whys: Cold Air Damming

One of the most complex weather patterns in western North Carolina is cold air damming. This occurs when high pressure centers itself just offshore or onshore the coast of New England. Wind comes out of the northeast and banks itself up against the mountains. Cold air is transported from the Atlantic Ocean and from the north over the Carolinas. During many events, temperatures struggle to reach the mid-30s during the winter. In some cases, this can be the ingredient needed for an ice storm in western North Carolina. Low pressure rides up from the Gulf of Mexico and sends warm moist air up and over the cold air. The temperatures aloft are to warm for snow; however, the temperature at the ground is below freezing. This results in freezing rain or sleet falling from the clouds.