Nice Weather To Continue

The rest of the year will feature Mostly Sunny conditions and a general warming trend. The high today will be around 50 degrees, with a general two-three degree climb each day into the low sixties by New Years Eve. New Years Day is expected to remain dry and relatively warm with highs in the upper 50s. Right now, it appears that January 2 or 3 may feature a front pushing very cold air into the area; however, the amount of precipitation with this system is currently unknown. We will keep you updated.

After Christmas Weather

I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas yesterday. As we transition now into the week following Christmas, a strong area of low pressure is expected to lift across the foothills tomorrow morning and afternoon, bring a period of very heavy rainfall. Temperatures will bottom out around 34 degrees, so no problems with icing are expected; however, some areas near the Blue Ridge escrapement could see some minor icing before 10:00 a.m. Right now, around an inch of rain is expected before the low pressure leaves the area Tuesday evening. Wednesday through Friday is expected to remain dry with highs in the low 50s Wednesday and Thursday and mid 50s on Friday. Lows will be in the upper 20s or low 30s.

TRACK SANTA

On December 24, NORAD will be tracking Santa. You can follow Santa's track below:

Very Slight Chance of Rain Christmas Day

A low pressure will be slower to eject across the country than originally expected, resulting in nice conditions Christmas Day. It will be partly to mostly cloudy; however, there will only be a slight chance of a shower in the foothills of North Carolina. The week after is expected to remain active as numerous short waves of energy continue to eject across the country. I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas!

Santa Could Face Rough Weather Christmas Eve, Christmas Day

Santa may need his rain jacket as he is delivering presents across the foothills of North Carolina. Models appear to show heavy rain developing Christmas Eve and lasting into early Christmas Day. The rain should begin to move out of the area in the afternoon hours Christmas Day; however, a quick inch of rain could fall during the heavy rain. The system is expected to remain all rain except in the highest elevations of the North Carolina mountains, where a brief period of snow is possible. Next week could remain active as waves of energy continue to move through the area.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!

The Week Before and Week After Christmas

Well, its going to be an interesting holiday season in the weather department, no doubt about it. Copious amounts of energy are in the flow and will be making the way across the United States this week and next week. So, everyone wants to know if we will have a white Christmas here in the Carolinas. That is a very complicated question due to the amount of energy in the flow. Different tracks and result in different results in the weather here in the Carolinas; however, if one of these pieces of energy act differently than expected, it can disrupt the entire situation. Here is the best guess right now. Rain is expected over the foothills of North Carolina Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A quick little break will occur before the next system moves in on Thursday evening bringing another shot of rain. Friday will feature mostly sunny skies. Christmas Eve is expected to be rainy with a cold front pushing through. Santa may have trouble delivering presents due to the wet weather here on the East Coast Christmas Eve Night. I expect that Christmas Day will remain mostly dry. The system early on December 26-27 though could be interesting. Some models are hinting at snow with this system that is expected to come through after Christmas while others are saying it will be a cold rain. It will be interesting to watch this system. I will keep you updated like always here on NC Foothills Weather.
I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas.

December to be Fairly Mild, Winter Tries to Return

The first part of December looks to be relatively warm; however, the second part of the forecast is becoming very difficult. The first fifteen days of December will be warmer than average across most of the foothills of North Carolina. This is due to La Nina, a positive NAO, and other oscillations. The second half of the forecast gets complicated as the models begin to diverge. We will have to wait to see how the oscillations move over the next few days before a definite forecast can be made about the last sixteen days of December. Right now, many of the NAO is expected to crash and move towards a negative phase, which would help to drive cold air down from Canada. Models in the long range have been saying this a lot of recent; however, they tend to back off this idea as we move closer to the expected time period.

HERE IS MY BEST FORECAST RIGHT NOW:
December 1-15: Warmer than average, precipitation around average, very little chance of any wintry weather.
December 16-31: Cooler than average, precipitation below average, chance of a winter storm after Christmas.

Strong Weather System to Bring Heavy Rain

Heavy rainfall is expected across the foothills of North Carolina Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain is expected to break out over the area Monday morning and last through the overnight until Tuesday morning. I will forecast 1.5-2.5 inches of rain for the eastern foothills with the western foothills receiving 2-4 inches of rain. Some areas could locally receive more rain. Below is the expected rainfall totals from the HPC this afternoon (this is a 48 hour map issued at 2:44 p.m.):

Upper Level Low To Affect Region

The foothills of North Carolina will be dealing with a very complicated weather situation Sunday through Tuesday. A large low pressure system will cut off from the overall pattern and form into a large upper level low pressure system. This cut off low pressure will help to draw copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Once the system begins to affect the region, late Sunday Night, a prolonged period of heavy rain is possible. Some of the mountain communities could see around 2-5 inches of rain from this system. Here in the foothills, most areas will see right around 1-3 inches of rain with the heaviest totals near the Blue Ridge. The Blue Ridge eastern escrapement could see up to 5 inches of rain. Some areas could see more or less rain depending on the overall evolution of the low pressure. As the system departs on Tuesday, a few snow showers are possible over the foothills; however, accumulating snow is not expected at this time. More details on this storm will come tomorrow morning, along with a map of expected rainfall amounts.

Severe Storms Possible

EDIT 11:40 A.M.: Right after I finished writing this post below, the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma upgraded the foothills of western North Carolina to a 5% chance of a tornado. The storms are currently expected to move through this evening.
A strong cold front and upper level trough is currently pushing its way through Tennessee and the gulf coast states, making its way slowly towards the foothills of North Carolina. Currently indications are the front is expected to arrive here in western North Carolina this evening and remain with us until midnight. Models are indicating very strong dynamics are coming together to help drive a period of strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has placed most of the area in a "SLIGHT RISK" for severe storms. To view the most current map, you can click this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html. Right now it appears that this biggest threat with this line will be strong winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and torrential rain; however, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out of the equation. Once this front passes, we will clear out for a beautiful weekend. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Temperatures Saturday will peak around 60 degrees before temperatures rise back up to near 70 degrees by Sunday.

Showers, Storms Possible Tuesday and Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms, yes storms, are possible as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday will feature more or less showers as a slow moving front meanders its way towards the area. By Tuesday Night, showers are expected to increase. Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are possible, with a slight chance of a few severe storms. These storms could produce very heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail, and very gusty winds. Precipitable water values are expected to quickly rise 200% above normal, so this could lead to locally heavy rainfall. Right now, I will forecast between a quarter to a half of an inch of rain. Some areas were storms track could see a whole lot more rain from this system. We clear out by Thursday and Friday with highs climbing into the 50s.

Overall Quiet Week

Warmer temperatures with a quiet weather is the expectations this week. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will remain in the upper 60s or lower 70s with mostly sunny skies after early morning fog burns off.  Lows are expected to be in the upper 30s, low 40s. Thursday will be mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers as a front moves through. Temperatures on Thursday will remain cool with the clouds, with highs in the low 60s. Thursday Night will have temperatures in the low 30s. Veterans Day, Friday, looks cooler with temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Friday Night will feature lows in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The weekend looks to be sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s with lows in the mid 30s.

Heavy Rain Possible Thursday Night

A quick moving system is expected to cross North Carolina Thursday Night and Friday, causing a brief period of very heavy rain to develop. Rain is expected to cover the foothills by 8:00 p.m. Thursday Night and be clearing the area by 8:00 a.m. Friday. The wild card is the development of any thunderstorms in this band of rain. Surface based cape will remain fairly week; however, the main upper air energy will be passing overhead as the storm pushes towards the coast. This could cause a few strong storms to push through in the overnight hours. Once the event is finished, I expect most areas in the foothills to have around one half to three-fourths of an inch of rain, with locally higher amounts approaching 1-2 inches of rain. After the system passes, a general warming trend is expected with temperatures by Tuesday approaching 70 degrees and dry weather for the weekend. Over the weekend, expect lows near freezing and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012

Another winter is now upon us, and now its time for my winter weather forecast. This year, I will forecast average to above average snowfall in the foothills of North Carolina. Most areas in the foothills receive around eight to ten inches of snow each season. I believe that most areas in the foothills will have two-four winter storms this season with a 50% chance of one of those storms being an ice storm. The reason for the average to above average snowfall totals this year is the pattern that is currently going on. We are seeing numerous troughs of low pressure dip down through the southeast, especially in October. This was evident with the most recent winter storm that affect areas in Virginia through the Northeast. This is a very favorable set up for winter weather in the foothills of North Carolina. The underlining factor that is expected to help us this winter cycle is the NAO. The NAO is a difficult part of the forecast because it is very hard to forecast the NAO long range; however, there is general agreement that the NAO should go negative for a portion of this winter. A negative NAO helps to bring down cool air from Canada into the eastern United States. I expect this to happen early this winter as last winter. I do not expect this winter to be as cool as last winter; however, I do expect below average temperatures. As for precipitation, I expect that most areas will remain drier than average, especially in the coastal plain. This year is a La Nina year, so that is why I will forecast below average rainfall. La Nina years usually results in warmer than average temperature; however, the NAO, as we saw last year, can offset and overpower the La Nina conditions. Once again, we are still learning about the NAO, and the effects the NAO has on our weather. I hope ya'll are ready for some snow, because it looks to be coming to the foothills of North Carolina again this season.

Wild Weather Coming Friday, Weekend

The weather is absolutely beautiful today with temperatures climbing into the 70s across much of the foothills of North Carolina, but the weather is about to change my friends. A front is currently moving this way, and the associated energy will help to develop an area of low pressure on the Carolina coast Friday. This will lock most of the foothills in a northeast cold air damming affect for Friday. Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees on Friday, with most of the day being locked in the middle to upper 40s with light rain. Current indications are that the rain could pick up in intensity Friday Night as the system continues to deepen on the coast. For Friday Night Football games, temperatures will be in the lower 40s or upper 30s with showers and rain and a northeast wind around 5-10 mph. Total rainfall for the event should be between a quarter and a half of an inch of rain; however, some areas could locally receive closer to one inch of rain. Saturday will be a clearing day with showers early and sunshine late in the day. This will help to set up for another frost/freeze event over the foothills. Current indications are that most areas will bottom out at 32 degrees, so be sure to bring in those tender plans Saturday Night and Sunday Night. Temperatures will slowly continue to rise next week with highs in the 50s / low 60s early in the week and lows in the upper 30s / low 40s.

Weekend Weather Forecast

First, I would like to give a sky watcher forecast for tonight with the new moon. Tonight, it will be partly cloudy across the foothills of North Carolina with temperatures quickly dropping into the 50s.
On Friday, a front will be draped over the area. New model data today suggest that there will be a light drizzle or rain developing over the foothills afternoon Friday lasting into the early hours of Saturday. Friday Night football games will feature drizzle with temperatures in the lower 40s or upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly drop from the mid to upper 40s into the upper 30s by midnight. The temperature Saturday morning will be mid 30s before rising into the upper 40s or lower 50s. Rainfall amounts will likely be under a quarter of an inch. Saturday will be cloudy early with sun in the afternoon. By Saturday Night, a frost may occur when temperatures drop near freezing. Sunday will be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the middle 30s.

Warming Trend Through Thursday, Cold Front Friday

The foothills of North Carolina are in for a great week with nice warm temperatures and cool crisp evenings. Daytime highs from today through Thursday will be above 70 near 75 degrees in most locations with lows dipping into the mid to upper 40s. By Thursday Night, a cold front will push through the region, helping to knock our temperatures back into the 50s for highs and lows near freezing over the weekend. Right now, no severe weather is expected with this cold front; however, that could change as we move closer to the event.

Minor Frost Possible Tonight

As an area of High pressure pushes into the area, winds should gradually decrease throughout the day and overnight; however, the winds will remain around 5-10 mph overnight. This will help to prevent a frost in most areas of the foothills. Some protected areas could see frosty conditions; however, most areas will stay above freezing and avoid frosty conditions to the morning. In the long range, another light frost is possible Saturday morning before we begin to moderate next week.

Showers Moving Out, Wind and Cooler Temps Coming

The showers and thunderstorms with a cold front will continue to decrease through the overnight hours, and the wind will begin to kick up. On Thursday, expect gusty winds around 15-20 mph with a few higher gust around 25-30 mph possible. The low tonight is expected to drop to 40 degrees. The high tomorrow will climb to 60 degrees with a temperature Friday morning of 39 degrees. Definitely a change from what we have been used to. The leave change is in full bloom, and is expected to reach peak next week. Some areas may frost Friday morning and Saturday morning; however, a widespread frost is currently not expected.
In the higher elevations of the mountains, some rain and snow showers are possible later tonight and Thursday. Right now, no accumulations are expected; however, some areas could pick up a quick dusting or a slushy inch before it melts.
Long Range show another dry cold front coming through Monday to help keep temperatures down; however, a warm up into the low 70s looks possible as we move in Wednesday next week. Then we watch for possibly the coldest air of the season next weekend. Its a long ways away, but we are getting due for our first major widespread frost to end the growing season.

Tuesday Night, Wednesday Morning Storm

Model from http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/

Pictured above is the GFS Model for the storm coming up tonight and Wednesday. This storm is expected to move up the coast and give us in the foothills a decent rain event. The 12z GFS model is calling for .25-.5 of an inch for most everyone in the foothills of North Carolina; however, I believe that totals will be slightly higher than what the GFS is showing. Right now, I will predict .5-1 inch of rain for most of the forecast area, including Shelby, Rutherfordton, Hickory, Morganton, Valdese, Granite Falls, Lenoir, and Wilkesboro. After the rain comes to an end Wednesday afternoon, the winds will kick up and bring in cooler air. The lows Thursday will be in the upper 30s, lower 40s with highs Thursday reaching mid to upper 50s for most locations. Fall is on the way.

Storm Coming Up Coast Could Provide Needed Rainfall

A large trough is currently bisecting the United States and a gulf low is stuck in the Gulf of Mexico. This trough will help to pick up the low and move it up the coast. As this happens, a shield of heavy rain is expected to develop across North Carolina. The million dollar question is where does this rain shield develop? Right now, the thinking is that the heaviest rain will remain east of the foothills; however, showers and storms are still likely. Right now I will forecast a half to one inch of rain for Burke, Caldwell, Wilkes, Catawba, McDowell, Rutherford, and Cleveland counties. I will be posting a map of the event later this afternoon.