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Thursday, January 5, 2012

Colder Weather May Be Coming Soon

As we move later into the month of January, we are beginning to see indications that cold air could be moving back into western North Carolina.

The Arctic Oscillation, one of the main factors used to help determine if cold air will move out of the Arctic towards lower latitudes, is beginning to turn negative. A negative AO means colder weather is more likely here in the foothills of western NC. Right now, indications are that the AO will go negative.

Now, this does not necessarily mean snow will find its way to western North Carolina. Other factors are very important in forecasting snow here in North Carolina; however, it looks like the atmosphere will remain relatively cool.

The other factors that forecasters and meteorologist look at is the Pacific North America Pattern (PNA), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). What the PNA and NAO does will affect our pattern here in WNC also. Right now, it appears the NAO and PNA are returning to a neutral state next week. There is very little certainty what will occur in the following weeks; however, a major storm late next week could help to flip the NAO and PNA to favorable phases for WNC.

The pattern is loaded with energy. Anything is possible as we move later into this month and into February. Right now, it appears colder weather will move into the area Thursday or Friday next week with a major storm. Temperatures will be similar to the previous cold weather outbreak. After this system, the models begin to diverge; however, the cooler weather appears to be heading back north for a few days before returning fairly quickly.

Always check here on the North Carolina Foothills Weather blog for the latest information.

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